TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Ankara, İstanbul
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Ankara-K1 | LAMBERHURST | ÇAĞANIM | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K2 | KALİ STRATA · SCHATZ · TUVA · DEJAME · FOR FREEDOM | FOR FREEDOM | 3 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Ankara-K3 | MİRAÇ · ROSE WARRIOR · RADAGIA | MİRAÇ | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Ankara-K4 | BERAY SULTAN · KILIÇ KIZI · GÜLDANİYE · YEŞİLKAYA | ESİNİN KIZI | 6 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K5 | SECRET WISH · FLIPENDO · MADAME ELİS · MISS TOKOÇİN | PEARL OF GOD | 6 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K6 | YÜCEOĞUL · DİSTİLE · SERDENİZ · EFSANE HANIM | HARESE | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K7 | CANMETE | MUHAFIZ | 1 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K8 | EXALTED · GOLDEN MELODY · MY FEARLESS | UNPREDICTABLE | 3 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Ankara-K9 | SULTANA · SHIRIN WARRIOR · KARLOVASİ · O PAPATYA · LACCARETHA · LAGARİ · TIME CHANGER · MAGGIE · EARTHQUAKE | FIGHTING MAN | 3 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | İstanbul-K1 | LAST HERO · EXTENSIVE | EXTENSIVE | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | İstanbul-K2 | SIDE GLORY | SIDE GLORY | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | İstanbul-K3 | GÜROBASI YP · LAZMAN · EGETAY · KAZDAĞI EFESİ · DAMLA SUYU · ZENG · LEONİDAS · LEONİDAS | GÜROBASI YP | 4 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | İstanbul-K4 | DELİ UMUT · KASAP ENDER · SANCAKALAN · GİRDABIN OĞLU · TERCAN HAN · SURUÇLU MEMO · ALATTİN · BALDER · METİNCİM | BALDER | 5 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | İstanbul-K5 | MERCIER · PATRONA HOLİ | TRUE BLUE | 3 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | İstanbul-K6 | SHINNY · AMAZING TOUCH · STAR RUNNER · LOCO SUGAR (IRE) | TRUELY | 2 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | İstanbul-K7 | CAPTAIN FANTASTIC | POETRY IN MOTION | 1 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | İstanbul-K8 | SAÇANŞAH · RÜZGARDAHAN · PLATFORM · ATİLLABEY · FIŞ FIŞ | SAÇANŞAH | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | İstanbul-K9 | VOLITIVO · BLIZZARD · PRENS LAUTARO | LEVERO | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 7/18 — %39
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 7/18 — %39)
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ankara-K1 | Lamberhurst | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K2 | Kali̇ Strata | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K3 | Mi̇raç | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Ankara-K4 | Kiliç Kizi | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K5 | Secret Wish | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K6 | Yüceoğul | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K7 | Muhafiz | ❌ DIŞARIDA | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Ankara-K8 | Golden Melody | ✅ | — |
| Ankara-K9 | Shirin Warrior | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K1 | Last Hero | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K2 | Champions | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
| İstanbul-K3 | Zeng | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K4 | Suruçlu Memo | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K5 | Mercier | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K6 | Amazing Touch | ✅ | — |
| İstanbul-K7 | Poetry In Motion | ❌ DIŞARIDA | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| İstanbul-K8 | Saçanşah | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| İstanbul-K9 | Volitivo | ✅ | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 3 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 2 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
Atılan TEK: 1/4 (beklenti ~%49 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ankara-K1 | LAMBERHURST | 0.6237 | TEK | ❌ | ÇAĞANIM KG DB SK | 4 |
| Ankara-K3 | MİRAÇ | 0.5007 | TEK-ADAY | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | MİRAÇ K DB | 1 |
| İstanbul-K7 | CAPTAIN FANTASTIC | 0.4847 | TEK | ❌ | POETRY IN MOTION DB SK | 1 |
| İstanbul-K8 | SAÇANŞAH | 0.4436 | TEK-ADAY | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | SAÇANŞAH SKG SK | 1 |
| Ankara-K7 | CANMETE | 0.4393 | TEK | ❌ | MUHAFIZ KG K | 1 |
| Ankara-K2 | KALİ STRATA | 0.4129 | BANT | — | FOR FREEDOM KG K | 3 |
| İstanbul-K2 | SIDE GLORY | 0.4016 | TEK | ✅ TUTTU | SIDE GLORY SK | 1 |
| İstanbul-K4 | DELİ UMUT | 0.382 | BANT | — | BALDER KG K DB SK | 5 |
| İstanbul-K5 | MERCIER | 0.3251 | TEK-ADAY | — | TRUE BLUE KG DB SK | 3 |
| İstanbul-K3 | GÜROBASI YP | 0.3218 | BANT | — | GÜROBASI DB SKG SK YP | 4 |
| Ankara-K9 | SULTANA | 0.3145 | BANT | — | FIGHTING MAN DB SK | 3 |
| İstanbul-K1 | EXTENSIVE | 0.3026 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | EXTENSIVE SKG SK | 2 |
| Ankara-K6 | DİSTİLE | 0.2841 | TEK-ADAY | — | HARESE DB SKG SK | 5 |
| Ankara-K4 | BERAY SULTAN | 0.2747 | BANT | — | ESİNİN KIZI SK | 6 |
| İstanbul-K9 | BLIZZARD | 0.2731 | BANT | ⬜ | — | — |
| İstanbul-K6 | SHINNY | 0.2612 | BANT | — | TRUELY SK | 2 |
| Ankara-K5 | SECRET WISH | 0.1855 | BANT | — | PEARL OF GOD KG K | 6 |
| Ankara-K8 | EXALTED | 0.1709 | BANT | — | UNPREDICTABLE SK | 3 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 9 ayağın 1'inde aday yine kazandı (%11). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (31799 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-09-05).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %39 (7/18) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %22 (4/18) · kör nokta 1/18
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ankara-K1 | ÇAĞANIM | 6 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Ankara-K2 | FOR FREEDOM | 5 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Ankara-K3 | MİRAÇ | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Ankara-K4 | ESİNİN KIZI | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Ankara-K5 | PEARL OF GOD | 6 | 🔴 KÖR NOKTA |
| Ankara-K6 | HARESE | 4 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Ankara-K7 | MUHAFIZ | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Ankara-K8 | UNPREDICTABLE | 4 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Ankara-K9 | FIGHTING MAN | 10 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| İstanbul-K1 | EXTENSIVE | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| İstanbul-K2 | SIDE GLORY | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| İstanbul-K3 | GÜROBASI YP | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| İstanbul-K4 | BALDER | 8 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| İstanbul-K5 | TRUE BLUE | 3 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| İstanbul-K6 | TRUELY | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| İstanbul-K7 | POETRY IN MOTION | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| İstanbul-K8 | SAÇANŞAH | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| İstanbul-K9 | LEVERO | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
🔴 1 KÖR NOKTA bugün — motorun 9 izlenen katmanından HİÇBİRİ ateşlemedi, ama at kazandı:
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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">144</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="422.5" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="556.5" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">130</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="364.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="498.0" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">112</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="182.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="316.0" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">56</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="175.5" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="309.5" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">54</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="78.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="212.0" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">24</text></svg>
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.
Kaynak: KALIBRASYON.csv 05.09 (155 at, 149 sonuçlu — 6 boş = çekilen, 3 ayakta), YAZAR-KARNE, HIPOTEZ. Motor bandı = defterdeki bantta_mi (43 at); kurgu bandı = yukarıdaki AYAK AYAK tablosu. İkisi farklı küme, karıştırma.
| ölçüt | bugün | son 27 gün (442 ayak) |
|---|---|---|
| M3 motor-1 isabet | 4/18 · %22 | %23,5 |
| M1 motor bandı isabet | 7/18 · %39 | %49,1 |
| motor bandı ROI (43 bahis) | −%64 | −%27 |
| AGF-1 ROI (20 bahis, 5 tuttu) | −%58 | — |
| motor-1 ROI (18 bahis, 4 tuttu) | −%47 | — |
18 kazananın 5'i 6+ ganyan (PEARL OF GOD 21,90 · ESİNİN KIZI 9,60 · HARESE 7,35 · BALDER 6,25 · LEVERO 6,05) ve hepsi motor bandı dışı. Sürpriz günü; M3 tabanda, M1 tabanın 10 puan altında. Tek gün karar vermez.
Kurgu 7 ayak tuttu, motor bandı da 7; ama 4 ayak farklı:
Ateşleme = puan>0 olan at sayısı; taban isabet %11,6 (18/155).
| katman | ateş | kazanan | lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| kagit | 36 | 7 | 1,67 |
| antrenor | 50 | 9 | 1,55 |
| isik | 51 | 8 | 1,35 |
| iliskisel | 65 | 10 | 1,32 |
| jokey | 45 | 6 | 1,15 |
| kan_pedigri | 128 | 17 | 1,14 |
| mercek | 57 | 7 | 1,06 |
| galop (ilk gün) | 27 | 3 | 0,99 |
| aygir_karne | 53 | 5 | 0,81 |
| h2h | 30 | 2 | 0,57 |
| insan_isilti | 2 | 0 | — |
aygir anahtarı 6 günde 0/1021 ateş — K-065'in eklediği alias hayalet, canlı katman aygir_karne. idman 6 günde 0. pace 31→16→16→3 düşüyor (02.09→05.09). bariyer yalnız 02.09'da 11, sonra 0.Bugün motor bandı ∩ AGF≥7: 3 at, 0 kazanan. Bant dışı AGF≥7: 38 at, 1 kazanan (ESİNİN KIZI 9,60, motor sıra 10). Peeking kalkanı çalıştı (tarih > 04.09), olculen_n=3. Beklenen tempo günde ~5,6; bugün 3 — Ankara-İstanbul kartı dar.
| at | ayak | motor | AGF | ganyan | sonuç |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHATZ | Ank-K2 | bantta, sıra 2 | 5 | 7,40 | kazanmadı (FOR FREEDOM 3,40) |
| KADER GÜCÜ | Ank-K7 | bant dışı, sıra 3 | 4 | 9,35 | kazanmadı (MUHAFIZ 1,75) |
Derece defterde yok (sonuç ham dosyası repoda değil); takip 1/3 sayacı otomatik ilerledi (isilti_karne.vade_sayaci_guncelle). İkisi de piyasanın 4-5. atıydı, motor SCHATZ'ı 2. görmüştü — motor Bayram'la aynı tarafta durdu, ikisi de kaçırdı.
Ankara iki kolon da 1. ayakta düştü (ÇAĞANIM motor sıra 6 AGF 4 · ESİNİN KIZI motor sıra 10 AGF 7). İstanbul K1→K6 5. ayağa geldi, TRUE BLUE'da düştü (motor sıra 3, "kol dar"). 27 günde bant-ROI −%27 iken bugün −%64: gün kötü, yapı değişmez.
defter_dogrula.py --dosya — galop/iliskisel/pace sıfır mı? pace 3'e düştü, 0 olursa K-06x sessiz sıfır.aygir alias ve idman sıfırı: kod okuması, 5 dk.