🔍 POST-MORTEM

2026-09-05
%39
M1 isabet · oynanan 7/18 ayak

TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez

Kart: Ankara, İstanbul

🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 4/18 — %22

(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)

AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu

K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)

ayakbandımızkazananAGFsonuç
KAnkara-K1LAMBERHURSTÇAĞANIM4❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K2KALİ STRATA · SCHATZ · TUVA · DEJAME · FOR FREEDOMFOR FREEDOM3✅ BANTTA
KAnkara-K3MİRAÇ · ROSE WARRIOR · RADAGIAMİRAÇ1✅ BANTTA
KAnkara-K4BERAY SULTAN · KILIÇ KIZI · GÜLDANİYE · YEŞİLKAYAESİNİN KIZI6❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K5SECRET WISH · FLIPENDO · MADAME ELİS · MISS TOKOÇİNPEARL OF GOD6❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K6YÜCEOĞUL · DİSTİLE · SERDENİZ · EFSANE HANIMHARESE5❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K7CANMETEMUHAFIZ1❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K8EXALTED · GOLDEN MELODY · MY FEARLESSUNPREDICTABLE3❌ KAÇTI
KAnkara-K9SULTANA · SHIRIN WARRIOR · KARLOVASİ · O PAPATYA · LACCARETHA · LAGARİ · TIME CHANGER · MAGGIE · EARTHQUAKEFIGHTING MAN3❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K1LAST HERO · EXTENSIVEEXTENSIVE2✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K2SIDE GLORYSIDE GLORY1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K3GÜROBASI YP · LAZMAN · EGETAY · KAZDAĞI EFESİ · DAMLA SUYU · ZENG · LEONİDAS · LEONİDASGÜROBASI YP4✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K4DELİ UMUT · KASAP ENDER · SANCAKALAN · GİRDABIN OĞLU · TERCAN HAN · SURUÇLU MEMO · ALATTİN · BALDER · METİNCİMBALDER5✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K5MERCIER · PATRONA HOLİTRUE BLUE3❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K6SHINNY · AMAZING TOUCH · STAR RUNNER · LOCO SUGAR (IRE)TRUELY2❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K7CAPTAIN FANTASTICPOETRY IN MOTION1❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K8SAÇANŞAH · RÜZGARDAHAN · PLATFORM · ATİLLABEY · FIŞ FIŞSAÇANŞAH1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K9VOLITIVO · BLIZZARD · PRENS LAUTAROLEVERO5❌ KAÇTI

M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 7/18 — %39
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)

(tüm ayaklar dahil: 7/18 — %39)

KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü

SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu

Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?

ayakAGF-1bantta mıydıkazandı mı
Ankara-K1Lamberhurst
Ankara-K2Kali̇ Strata
Ankara-K3Mi̇raç🏆 KAZANDI
Ankara-K4Kiliç Kizi
Ankara-K5Secret Wish
Ankara-K6Yüceoğul
Ankara-K7Muhafiz❌ DIŞARIDA🏆 KAZANDI
Ankara-K8Golden Melody
Ankara-K9Shirin Warrior
İstanbul-K1Last Hero
İstanbul-K2Champions❌ DIŞARIDA
İstanbul-K3Zeng
İstanbul-K4Suruçlu Memo
İstanbul-K5Mercier
İstanbul-K6Amazing Touch
İstanbul-K7Poetry In Motion❌ DIŞARIDA🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K8Saçanşah🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K9Volitivo

Bugün: AGF-1 3 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 2 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)

🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi

Atılan TEK: 1/4 (beklenti ~%49 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))

ayakTEKpkararsonuçkazanankazanan AGF
Ankara-K1LAMBERHURST0.6237TEKÇAĞANIM KG DB SK4
Ankara-K3MİRAÇ0.5007TEK-ADAY⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)MİRAÇ K DB1
İstanbul-K7CAPTAIN FANTASTIC0.4847TEKPOETRY IN MOTION DB SK1
İstanbul-K8SAÇANŞAH0.4436TEK-ADAY⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)SAÇANŞAH SKG SK1
Ankara-K7CANMETE0.4393TEKMUHAFIZ KG K1
Ankara-K2KALİ STRATA0.4129BANTFOR FREEDOM KG K3
İstanbul-K2SIDE GLORY0.4016TEK✅ TUTTUSIDE GLORY SK1
İstanbul-K4DELİ UMUT0.382BANTBALDER KG K DB SK5
İstanbul-K5MERCIER0.3251TEK-ADAYTRUE BLUE KG DB SK3
İstanbul-K3GÜROBASI YP0.3218BANTGÜROBASI DB SKG SK YP4
Ankara-K9SULTANA0.3145BANTFIGHTING MAN DB SK3
İstanbul-K1EXTENSIVE0.3026BANT⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)EXTENSIVE SKG SK2
Ankara-K6DİSTİLE0.2841TEK-ADAYHARESE DB SKG SK5
Ankara-K4BERAY SULTAN0.2747BANTESİNİN KIZI SK6
İstanbul-K9BLIZZARD0.2731BANT
İstanbul-K6SHINNY0.2612BANTTRUELY SK2
Ankara-K5SECRET WISH0.1855BANTPEARL OF GOD KG K6
Ankara-K8EXALTED0.1709BANTUNPREDICTABLE SK3

Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 9 ayağın 1'inde aday yine kazandı (%11). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.

Bu tablo TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.

🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ

Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (31799 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-09-05).

Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %39 (7/18) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %22 (4/18) · kör nokta 1/18

ayakkazananorkestra sırasıteşhis
Ankara-K1ÇAĞANIM6🟠 ağırlık düşük
Ankara-K2FOR FREEDOM5🟠 kol dar kalmış
Ankara-K3MİRAÇ1✅ sistem çalıştı
Ankara-K4ESİNİN KIZI10🔴 ceza fazla sert
Ankara-K5PEARL OF GOD6🔴 KÖR NOKTA
Ankara-K6HARESE4🟠 kol dar kalmış
Ankara-K7MUHAFIZ2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
Ankara-K8UNPREDICTABLE4🟠 kol dar kalmış
Ankara-K9FIGHTING MAN10🟠 ağırlık düşük
İstanbul-K1EXTENSIVE2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
İstanbul-K2SIDE GLORY1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K3GÜROBASI YP1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K4BALDER8🟠 ağırlık düşük
İstanbul-K5TRUE BLUE3🟠 kol dar kalmış
İstanbul-K6TRUELY7🟠 ağırlık düşük
İstanbul-K7POETRY IN MOTION2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
İstanbul-K8SAÇANŞAH1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K9LEVERO7🟠 ağırlık düşük

🔴 1 KÖR NOKTA bugün — motorun 9 izlenen katmanından HİÇBİRİ ateşlemedi, ama at kazandı:

Trend — son 30 gün

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Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.


🧠 ARA PM ANALİZİ — 05.09 · 21:55 (Claude, defterden)

Kaynak: KALIBRASYON.csv 05.09 (155 at, 149 sonuçlu — 6 boş = çekilen, 3 ayakta), YAZAR-KARNE, HIPOTEZ. Motor bandı = defterdeki bantta_mi (43 at); kurgu bandı = yukarıdaki AYAK AYAK tablosu. İkisi farklı küme, karıştırma.

1 · Gün fotoğrafı — kötü gün, sürpriz günü

ölçütbugünson 27 gün (442 ayak)
M3 motor-1 isabet4/18 · %22%23,5
M1 motor bandı isabet7/18 · %39%49,1
motor bandı ROI (43 bahis)−%64−%27
AGF-1 ROI (20 bahis, 5 tuttu)−%58
motor-1 ROI (18 bahis, 4 tuttu)−%47

18 kazananın 5'i 6+ ganyan (PEARL OF GOD 21,90 · ESİNİN KIZI 9,60 · HARESE 7,35 · BALDER 6,25 · LEVERO 6,05) ve hepsi motor bandı dışı. Sürpriz günü; M3 tabanda, M1 tabanın 10 puan altında. Tek gün karar vermez.

2 · Kurgu bandı vs motor bandı — aynı 7, farklı 7

Kurgu 7 ayak tuttu, motor bandı da 7; ama 4 ayak farklı:

3 · Katmanlar — ilk gün galop, ilişkisel, ışıltı defterde

Ateşleme = puan>0 olan at sayısı; taban isabet %11,6 (18/155).

katmanateşkazananlift
kagit3671,67
antrenor5091,55
isik5181,35
iliskisel65101,32
jokey4561,15
kan_pedigri128171,14
mercek5771,06
galop (ilk gün)2730,99
aygir_karne5350,81
h2h3020,57
insan_isilti20

4 · Piyasa — SORU-27 ve yazarlar

5 · H-014 fırsat hücresi — sayaç 3/500

Bugün motor bandı ∩ AGF≥7: 3 at, 0 kazanan. Bant dışı AGF≥7: 38 at, 1 kazanan (ESİNİN KIZI 9,60, motor sıra 10). Peeking kalkanı çalıştı (tarih > 04.09), olculen_n=3. Beklenen tempo günde ~5,6; bugün 3 — Ankara-İstanbul kartı dar.

6 · Takip atları (Bayram radarı 04.09) — takip 1/3

atayakmotorAGFganyansonuç
SCHATZAnk-K2bantta, sıra 257,40kazanmadı (FOR FREEDOM 3,40)
KADER GÜCÜAnk-K7bant dışı, sıra 349,35kazanmadı (MUHAFIZ 1,75)

Derece defterde yok (sonuç ham dosyası repoda değil); takip 1/3 sayacı otomatik ilerledi (isilti_karne.vade_sayaci_guncelle). İkisi de piyasanın 4-5. atıydı, motor SCHATZ'ı 2. görmüştü — motor Bayram'la aynı tarafta durdu, ikisi de kaçırdı.

7 · Kupon

Ankara iki kolon da 1. ayakta düştü (ÇAĞANIM motor sıra 6 AGF 4 · ESİNİN KIZI motor sıra 10 AGF 7). İstanbul K1→K6 5. ayağa geldi, TRUE BLUE'da düştü (motor sıra 3, "kol dar"). 27 günde bant-ROI −%27 iken bugün −%64: gün kötü, yapı değişmez.

Yarın için (06.09 Adana + İstanbul)

  1. defter_dogrula.py --dosya — galop/iliskisel/pace sıfır mı? pace 3'e düştü, 0 olursa K-06x sessiz sıfır.
  2. aygir alias ve idman sıfırı: kod okuması, 5 dk.
  3. HARUN REİS (İst-K8, G2, Ç1Ç1Ç1) takipte — tek takip atı.
  4. Gece çekimi: bugünkü PM 21:45'te ELLE koştu; görev listesi hâlâ gelmedi, gece zinciri zamanlayıcısı açık soru.
TJK Günlük · POST-MORTEM · 2026-09-05