🔍 POST-MORTEM

2026-08-21
🎲 gün sayfasıkurgu🏆 TEK kapısıpost-mortemtüm günler
%52
M1 isabet · oynanan 11/21 ayak

TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez

Kart: Bursa, İstanbul

🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 6/21 — %29

(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)

AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu

K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)

ayakbandımızkazananAGFsonuç
KBursa-K1KOÇİNOĞLU · ÖZASYALI · KINALIIRMAK · GOLAÇİYA · ATEŞ KRALI · ADA KÖPRÜSÜ · GÖLGE ADAM · FIRTINA FEDAİSİ · DENİZBERKÖZGÜR KAPTAN2❌ KAÇTI
KBursa-K2I LOVE SPEED · ASALETHANAYLİNPERİ4❌ KAÇTI
KBursa-K3PAŞAM ÖMER · ÖZ GÜMÜŞ · DAĞARDI · BOZKARABEYİ · AZRAKTAY · SELİNNAZ · NADİYEKINALI · LİTERATÜR · KIZNEŞESİ · BODRUM RÜZGARI · LİTERATÜR · BODRUM RÜZGARIPAŞAM ÖMER1✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K4NAERYS · SHEEP STEALERGOLDEN SAIL1❌ KAÇTI
KBursa-K5LORD OF YILDIZERLORD OF YILDIZER1✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K6ÇOLAK ARİF · BESTE BEGÜMŞENGÜL SULTAN4❌ KAÇTI
KBursa-K7BAHRİYELİ ÇİKOK · ECHOGUETTEECHOGUETTE2✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K8AL CEMAL · ÜSTÜNSOYAL CEMAL1✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K9TAM TIME · KARA BERELİTAM TIME2✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K10KESTENOĞLU · TERCAN HAN · SANCARLI BEY · BUZ DEVİ · ÖZTAMER · RÜZGARSU · GÖKTÜRK BEY · TOPRAK BEYİ · BİRGEDAĞ · BİRGEDAĞTERCAN HAN1✅ BANTTA
KBursa-K11CALIFORNIA FIRE · LIFE AND LIGHT · MAMDANI · FIRST ROSE · MAGGIE · SOSAN · BABA ZÜLKÜF · GONE WITH STORM · TIZ TEMPESTTIZ TEMPEST8✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K1GILMOUR · SCHATZ · ZİMBATRONŞEKER PİRAYE4❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K2QUEEN Z · MİRAÇ · MİHRA FARAH · GRETELMİRAÇ1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K3SOCIAL BEE · ŞAMAR · LAST HEROMR TT3❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K4VICTORY XECE · ARDA JR · ATOMIC AGEGALİPHANBEY2❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K5BRAVE HERA · NORTHERN LOVE · DIELLIARBITRAGE2❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K6ABBAS BEY · O BİR ÇELİK · KILIÇ İBO · MEHMETOĞLUABBAS BEY1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K7CALVADOS · JAZZ RUNNER · JAEHAERACALVADOS7✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K8NYMPHADORA TONKS · İPHİKLOS · REAL TROUBLEİPHİKLOS3✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K9NATIVE RUNNER · ANY GIVEN SUNDAY · QUEEN MİHRİ · DURU GIRLTOUCH OF GLORY1❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K1013.2İLKUTHAN3❌ KAÇTI

M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 11/21 — %52
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)

(tüm ayaklar dahil: 11/21 — %52)

KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü

SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu

Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?

ayakAGF-1bantta mıydıkazandı mı
Bursa-K1Koçi̇noğlu✅—
Bursa-K10Tercan Han✅🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K11Mamdani✅—
Bursa-K2Star Wizard❌ DIŞARIDA—
Bursa-K3Paşam Ömer✅🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K4Golden Sail❌ DIŞARIDA🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K5Lord Of Yildizer✅🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K6Acar Çocuk❌ DIŞARIDA—
Bursa-K7Echoguette✅🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K8Al Cemal✅🏆 KAZANDI
Bursa-K9Taner Abi̇❌ DIŞARIDA—
İstanbul-K1Zi̇mbatron✅—
İstanbul-K10Balder❌ DIŞARIDA—
İstanbul-K2Mi̇raç✅🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K3Social Bee✅—
İstanbul-K4Arda Jr✅—
İstanbul-K5Brave Hera✅—
İstanbul-K6O Bi̇r Çeli̇k✅—
İstanbul-K7Jazz Runner✅—
İstanbul-K8Nymphadora Tonks✅—
İstanbul-K9Touch Of Glory❌ DIŞARIDA🏆 KAZANDI

Bugün: AGF-1 6 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 2 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)

🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi

Atılan TEK: 2/4 (ölçülmüş beklenti: T-60 ~%49 · kısa liste ~%45 · gece ~%40)

ayakTEKpkararsonuçkazanankazanan AGF
Bursa-K5LORD OF YILDIZER0.4582TEK✅ TUTTULORD OF YILDIZER KG K DB1
İstanbul-K8NYMPHADORA TONKS0.3745TEK❌İPHİKLOS DB SKG SK3
İstanbul-K4VICTORY XECE0.3703TEK-ADAY—GALİPHANBEY KG K2
Bursa-K4NAERYS0.3553TEK-ADAY—GOLDEN SAIL KG K1
İstanbul-K7CALVADOS0.3518TEK-ADAY⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)CALVADOS KG SK7
İstanbul-K3SOCIAL BEE0.3461TEK❌MR TT DB SKG SK3
Bursa-K2I LOVE SPEED0.3025BANT—AYLİNPERİ4
İstanbul-K1GILMOUR0.2523BANT—ŞEKER PİRAYE KG SK4
Bursa-K9TAM TIME0.2377TEK✅ TUTTUTAM TIME KG SK2
Bursa-K8AL CEMAL0.2276TEK-ADAY⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)AL CEMAL KG1
İstanbul-K10ÖZGÜNBERK0.2036BANT⬜——
Bursa-K11CALIFORNIA FIRE0.2035BANT—TIZ TEMPEST KG DB SK8
Bursa-K3PAŞAM ÖMER0.1736BANT⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)PAŞAM ÖMER KG K1
İstanbul-K2QUEEN Z0.1728BANT—MİRAÇ K DB1
İstanbul-K9NATIVE RUNNER0.1727BANT—TOUCH OF GLORY K1
İstanbul-K5BRAVE HERA0.1681BANT—ARBITRAGE KG DB SK2
İstanbul-K6O BİR ÇELİK0.1676BANT—ABBAS BEY KG K DB1
Bursa-K1KOÇİNOĞLU0.1618VETO · ACILIS-KALABALIK✅ haklı vetoÖZGÜR KAPTAN KG K2
Bursa-K6ÇOLAK ARİF0.1618BANT—ŞENGÜL SULTAN KG DB SK4
Bursa-K7ECHOGUETTE0.1572BANT⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)ECHOGUETTE SKG SK2
Bursa-K10KESTENOĞLU0.1416BANT—TERCAN HAN SK1

Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 11 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%18). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.

Sert veto: 1 ayakta tetiklendi, 0'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md

Bu tablo TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.

🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ

Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (6532 koşu, 2025-07-01 → 2026-08-21).

Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %60 (12/20) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %35 (7/20) · kör nokta 4/20

ayakkazananorkestra sırasıteşhis
Bursa-K1ÖZGÜR KAPTAN11🔴 ceza fazla sert
Bursa-K10TERCAN HAN2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
Bursa-K11TIZ TEMPEST10🔴 KÖR NOKTA
Bursa-K2AYLİNPERİ3🟠 kol dar kalmış
Bursa-K3PAŞAM ÖMER1✅ sistem çalıştı
Bursa-K4GOLDEN SAIL3🟠 kol dar kalmış
Bursa-K5LORD OF YILDIZER1✅ sistem çalıştı
Bursa-K6ŞENGÜL SULTAN2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
Bursa-K7ECHOGUETTE2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
Bursa-K8AL CEMAL1✅ sistem çalıştı
Bursa-K9TAM TIME1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K1ŞEKER PİRAYE4🟠 kol dar kalmış
İstanbul-K2MİRAÇ2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
İstanbul-K3MR TT7🔴 KÖR NOKTA
İstanbul-K4GALİPHANBEY4🔴 KÖR NOKTA
İstanbul-K5ARBITRAGE10🔴 KÖR NOKTA
İstanbul-K6ABBAS BEY1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K7CALVADOS1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K8İPHİKLOS2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
İstanbul-K9TOUCH OF GLORY1✅ sistem çalıştı

🔴 4 KÖR NOKTA bugün — motorun 9 izlenen katmanından HİÇBİRİ ateşlemedi, ama at kazandı:

Trend — son 30 gün

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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">140</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="411.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="545.2" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">123</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="330.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="464.9" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">99</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="177.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="311.2" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">53</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="167.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="301.1" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">50</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="113.7" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="247.7" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">34</text></svg>

Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.

TJK Günlük · POST-MORTEM · 2026-08-21