🔍 POST-MORTEM
12 Ekim 2026Günün kazananları · 12 Ekim 2026
YAĞTU · TAŞTEPE · LACCARETHA · BLUE RANSOM · BİÇERGİLLER · SELLY SU · ROYAL MAJESTY · LA BOMBONERA · KIRDOĞAN · HAVZALI · BROMANCE · ATEŞATAR · DELICIAS TURCAS · BİLKAY · BAY CAVALLO · WIND CITY
Sim-Race uyumu · 12 Ekim 2026
| koşu | sim ilk 3 | gerçek ilk 3 | kazanan sim # | podyum | uyum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa 1 | SILA ALEYNA · AURORA NOVA · SELLY SU | SELLY SU · SPRING CAT · YOU ARE GREAT | 3 | 1/3 | 60 |
| Bursa 2 | THINDER OF SHINE · LA BOMBONERA · ERDUMAN | LA BOMBONERA · SHEEP STEALER · THINDER OF SHINE | 2 | 2/3 | 52 |
| Bursa 3 | BAY CAVALLO · CHOSEN ONE · APOLLON | BAY CAVALLO · EL REY ESCORPİON · CHOSEN ONE | 1 | 2/3 | 22 |
| Bursa 4 | GÜLEYCANOĞLU · ÇUKUROVA EFESİ · BİÇERGİLLER | BİÇERGİLLER · SÜTLİMAN · ÇUKUROVA EFESİ | 3 | 2/3 | 61 |
| Bursa 5 | LITTLE FLORENTINA · PICCADILLY LINE · ROYAL MAJESTY | ROYAL MAJESTY · LADY GALA · PICCADILLY LINE | 3 | 2/3 | 72 |
| Bursa 6 | HAVZALI · DİLAN KIZ · TARÇINKIZ | HAVZALI · TARÇINKIZ · HAZBALIK | 1 | 2/3 | 64 |
| Bursa 7 | DELICIAS TURCAS · GOLDEN RHAPSODY · HOLD ON TO LIFE | DELICIAS TURCAS · ÇORLİ · TATLI AKYÜZ | 1 | 1/3 | 73 |
| Bursa 8 | GENERAL EL CID · DEEP OF ANCESTOR · MAGGIE BB | LACCARETHA · RISING PEARL · BLACK BLAZE | 5 | 0/3 | 48 |
| Şanlıurfa 1 | BABA AKİF · AMİRSOYLU · ÇEÇAN BEY | BİLKAY · CANOĞLU YILDIZI · BABA AKİF | 15 | 1/3 | 22 |
| Şanlıurfa 2 | MR ÇINAR · WIND CITY · LION ESMER | WIND CITY · BECENE REİS · PAPA CLAS | 2 | 1/3 | 4 |
| Şanlıurfa 3 | BAKTAGÖR · MARDİ GRAS · MY INVENTION | BROMANCE · SAKLIKAPI · KING ANCESTOR | 9 | 0/3 | 51 |
| Şanlıurfa 4 | AVDANCI · KIRDOĞAN · GOLAÇİYA | KIRDOĞAN · AVDANCI · MERCAN ANA | 2 | 2/3 | 73 |
| Şanlıurfa 5 | PEKALP · TAŞTEPE · ESKİ KALELİ | TAŞTEPE · PEKALP · GECE IŞIĞI | 2 | 2/3 | 16 |
| Şanlıurfa 6 | DARK REIGN · BOLUN · AZİZ GEÇGELHAT | BLUE RANSOM · KENTUCKY BLAZE · SERT RÜZGAR | 6 | 0/3 | 21 |
| Şanlıurfa 7 | ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · ATEŞATAR · ŞEN ABLAM | ATEŞATAR · ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · ÇILGINKRAL | 2 | 2/3 | 26 |
| Şanlıurfa 8 | UĞUR MELEĞİ · GÖZE ÇARPAN · YAĞTU | YAĞTU · UĞUR MELEĞİ · MUNİS | 3 | 2/3 | 72 |
TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Bursa, Şanlıurfa
🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 5/16 — %31
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Bursa-K1 | SELLY SU · YOU ARE GREAT · AURORA NOVA · SILA ALEYNA | SELLY SU | 3 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K2 | THINDER OF SHINE · SHEEP STEALER · LA BOMBONERA · CHUMLEE · LA BOMBONERA | LA BOMBONERA | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K3 | BAY CAVALLO · CHOSEN ONE | BAY CAVALLO | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K4 | CEVATHAN · GÜLEYCANOĞLU · BİÇERGİLLER · GÜMBÜR ŞAH · ÇUKUROVA EFESİ | BİÇERGİLLER | 3 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K5 | PICCADILLY LINE · LITTLE FLORENTINA | ROYAL MAJESTY | 3 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K6 | TARÇINKIZ · HAVZALI | HAVZALI | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K7 | DELICIAS TURCAS · HOLD ON TO LIFE · GOLDEN RHAPSODY | DELICIAS TURCAS | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K8 | MAGGIE BB · DEEP OF ANCESTOR · ALTYN ORDA · MEVLÜDE HATUN · EMEĞİN KARŞILIĞI · MYBOYAKIN · LACCARETHA · BLACK BLAZE · KHAN OF THE FOREST · GENERAL EL CID | LACCARETHA | 4 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K1 | BABA AKİF · KETRİN · AMİRSOYLU · AMİRSOYLU · VARTUHİM | BİLKAY | 2 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K2 | WIND CITY · BECENE REİS · MR ÇINAR · LION ESMER | WIND CITY | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K3 | MY INVENTION · MARDİ GRAS · BROMANCE · KING ANCESTOR · TYRAXES · BAKTAGÖR · BERAT KAAN · IRISH MILLIONS · PATPAT · KİKİ FERRO | BROMANCE | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K4 | MERCAN ANA · AVDANCI | KIRDOĞAN | 2 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K5 | ESKİ KALELİ · PEKALP · TAŞTEPE · ESSANCAR · OĞLUMBENİM · OĞUZBEYİ | TAŞTEPE | 4 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K6 | BOLUN · DARK REIGN | BLUE RANSOM | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K7 | ATEŞATAR · ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · YURDABAKCAN | ATEŞATAR | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K8 | YARALI AKBAŞ · UĞUR MELEĞİ | YAĞTU | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 11/16 — %69
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 11/16 — %69)
KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü
- Bursa · K1→K6 — 5. ayakta düştü (Bursa-K5 · ROYAL MAJESTY)
- Bursa · K3→K8 — 3. ayakta düştü (Bursa-K5 · ROYAL MAJESTY)
- Şanlıurfa · K1→K6 — 1. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K1 · BİLKAY)
- Şanlıurfa · K3→K8 — 2. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K4 · KIRDOĞAN)
SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | Sila Aleyna | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K2 | Thinder Of Shine | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K3 | Bay Cavallo | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K4 | Güleycanoğlu | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K5 | Little Florentina | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K6 | Di̇lan Kiz | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
| Bursa-K7 | Delicias Turcas | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K8 | General El Cid | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | Baba Aki̇f | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | Wind City | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | Mardi̇ Gras | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | Avdanci | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | Pekalp | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | Bolun | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | Çakal Çökerten | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | Uğur Meleği̇ | ✅ | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 1 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 0 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi
Atılan TEK: 0/2 (beklenti ~%43 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | WIND CITY | 0.5106 | TEK-ADAY | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | WIND CITY KG K | 1 |
| Bursa-K4 | CEVATHAN | 0.4446 | TEK | ❌ | BİÇERGİLLER KG K DB | 3 |
| Bursa-K2 | THINDER OF SHINE | 0.4243 | TEK-ADAY | — | LA BOMBONERA KG K DB ÖG | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | BOLUN | 0.4148 | TEK | ❌ | BLUE RANSOM K | 5 |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | YARALI AKBAŞ | 0.3783 | TEK-ADAY | ⬜ | — | — |
| Bursa-K6 | TARÇINKIZ | 0.3246 | TEK-ADAY | — | HAVZALI KG DB SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K8 | MAGGIE BB | 0.3193 | BANT | — | LACCARETHA K DB | 4 |
| Bursa-K5 | PICCADILLY LINE | 0.3074 | BANT | — | ROYAL MAJESTY KG K DB | 3 |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | ATEŞATAR | 0.275 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | ATEŞATAR KG SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K7 | DELICIAS TURCAS | 0.2498 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | DELICIAS TURCAS SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | MARDİ GRAS | 0.2374 | BANT | — | BROMANCE K DB | 1 |
| Bursa-K3 | CHOSEN ONE | 0.2348 | BANT | — | BAY CAVALLO DB SKG SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | BABA AKİF | 0.2135 | VETO · DOGU-K1 | ✅ haklı veto | BİLKAY KG SK | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | ESKİ KALELİ | 0.2029 | BANT | — | TAŞTEPE KG DB SK | 4 |
| Bursa-K1 | SELLY SU | 0.1925 | VETO · ACILIS-KALABALIK | 🔴 YANLIŞ VETO | SELLY SU DB SK | 3 |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | BİRİNCİSOY | 0.1757 | BANT | — | KIRDOĞAN KG DB SK | 2 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 8 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%25). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Sert veto: 2 ayakta tetiklendi, 1'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (32890 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-10-12).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %62 (10/16) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %31 (5/16) · kör nokta 0/16
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | SELLY SU | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K2 | LA BOMBONERA | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Bursa-K3 | BAY CAVALLO | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K4 | BİÇERGİLLER | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K5 | ROYAL MAJESTY | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K6 | HAVZALI | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K7 | DELICIAS TURCAS | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K8 | LACCARETHA | 8 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | BİLKAY | 7 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | WIND CITY | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | BROMANCE | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | KIRDOĞAN | 8 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | TAŞTEPE | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | BLUE RANSOM | 9 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | ATEŞATAR | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | YAĞTU | 6 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
Trend — son 30 gün
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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">154</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="407.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="541.2" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">134</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="310.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="444.0" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">102</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="218.8" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="352.8" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">72</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="203.6" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="337.6" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">67</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="18.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="152.2" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">6</text></svg>
🔧 Haftalık katman çarpanı — Pazartesi tetiği
ambar 313891 at-koşusu · 1860 gün · TRAIN <2026-08-14 (302547) · TEST >=2026-08-14 (11344)
KAĞIT lift TRAIN=1.659(n=64690) TEST=1.615(n=2218) → çarpan 1.387→1.394 [guncellendi]
IŞIK lift TRAIN=1.459(n=82244) TEST=1.428(n=2861) → çarpan 1.387→1.394 [guncellendi]
H2H lift TRAIN=1.374(n=84623) TEST=1.437(n=3125) → çarpan 1.379→1.390 [guncellendi]
MERCEK lift TRAIN=1.173(n=100243) TEST=1.175(n=4016) → çarpan 1.134→1.155 [guncellendi]
ANTRENÖR lift TRAIN=1.021(n=188659) TEST=1.038(n=7003) → çarpan 1.038→1.038 [guncellendi]
JOKEY lift TRAIN=1.241(n=15736) TEST=1.443(n=2839) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
İDMAN lift TRAIN=—(n=0) TEST=—(n=0) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [atlandi-veri-yok]
BARİYER lift TRAIN=0.918(n=5601) TEST=0.783(n=354) → çarpan 0.898→0.840 [guncellendi]
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.mdTam detay: 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.md · 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.