TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Bursa, Şanlıurfa
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Bursa-K1 | ARCHONEI · THINDER OF SHINE · BRUSK SHOT · CANTALOUPE | THINDER OF SHINE | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K2 | UÇAN DULO · HİFA GÜZELİ · KAZAN GİRİL | KAZAN GİRİL | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K3 | GÜRCEYHUN · FİKRET ABİ · CESURSOY · CEBELTUNA · DEMİRHAN TAYI · ERDEK · PENÇSİR · BABA ZAMAN · ALSAKİB | FİKRET ABİ | 4 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K4 | GÜLNARLI | BODRUM RÜZGARI | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K5 | DEMRENİN KIZI · HAZBALIK | DEMRENİN KIZI | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K6 | GOLDEN SAIL · LORD OF DRAGON · RAND AL THOR | TYPHOON | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K7 | PERHAPS · ROCK OF BEAUTIFUL | PERHAPS | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K8 | İCLAL HANIM · ELİF NİSA · BANGU · NADİYEKINALI · NARENKA · HATUN DİDEM · ULU IRMAK · LEMİKIZ · NARENKA | NADİYEKINALI | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K1 | SECRET GIRL · GAMBLING | SECRET GIRL | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K2 | TUMBUL NAZLI · CİNDERELLA · KRALİÇEANNA · ÇIĞGİBİ | ÇİÇEKMAST | 7 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K3 | MELEKCAN · LION OF THE NORTH | ARATŞAH | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K4 | HUN DAY · BİLDENCAN · DABANLI | İLKBAHAR KIZI | 7 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K5 | TUSTUS TUĞRUL · OĞUL FATİH · MAHFUZ · AKTAŞBEYLİ · MERHAMET · EYBERK · TAHT ALAN · ÇERMİKŞAH · ROYALCAN | AĞASAÇAN | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K6 | YARALI AKBAŞ · GÜVENABİ · UMUDUM DENİZ · SON AKTAŞ · PINAR RÜZGARI · MUNİS · GÖLDERELİ · KÜÇÜK YUNUS · ÇELİKOVİÇ · ÇELİKOVİÇ | HAMDİ AĞA | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K7 | LOVESICK GRILS | LOVESICK GRILS | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K8 | LION ROBERO · MONOMOY GIRL · COOL POWER · RAHAT OLL | LION ROBERO | 6 | ✅ BANTTA |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 9/16 — %56
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 9/16 — %56)
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | Thinder Of Shine | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K2 | Uçan Dulo | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K3 | Cebeltuna | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K4 | Gülnarli | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K5 | Demreni̇n Kizi | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K6 | Golden Sail | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K7 | Perhaps | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K8 | Nadi̇yekinali | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | Secret Girl | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | Ci̇nderella | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | Gold Ami̇ral | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | Hun Day | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | Tustus Tuğrul | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | Yarali Akbaş | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | Lovesick Grils | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | El Leon | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 2 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 0 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
Atılan TEK: 1/2 (beklenti ~%42 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K4 | GÜLNARLI | 0.4547 | TEK | ❌ | BODRUM RÜZGARI K | 4 |
| Bursa-K7 | ROCK OF BEAUTIFUL | 0.4271 | TEK-ADAY | — | PERHAPS K | 1 |
| Bursa-K2 | UÇAN DULO | 0.4256 | TEK-ADAY | — | KAZAN GİRİL KG K DB | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | LOVESICK GRILS | 0.3941 | TEK | ✅ TUTTU | LOVESICK GRILS SK | 1 |
| Bursa-K6 | GOLDEN SAIL | 0.3601 | BANT | — | TYPHOON DB SK | 5 |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | TUMBUL NAZLI | 0.3367 | TEK-ADAY | — | ÇİÇEKMAST KG DB SK | 7 |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | YARALI AKBAŞ | 0.2912 | BANT | — | HAMDİ AĞA KG DB | 4 |
| Bursa-K3 | FİKRET ABİ | 0.2835 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | FİKRET ABİ KG DB SK | 4 |
| Bursa-K5 | DEMRENİN KIZI | 0.2796 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | DEMRENİN KIZI KG K | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | TUSTUS TUĞRUL | 0.2477 | BANT | — | AĞASAÇAN KG DB SK | 4 |
| Bursa-K1 | ARCHONEI | 0.2444 | VETO · ACILIS-KALABALIK | ✅ haklı veto | THINDER OF SHINE SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | HUN DAY | 0.2337 | BANT | — | İLKBAHAR KIZI K | 7 |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | SECRET GIRL | 0.2223 | VETO · DOGU-K1 | 🔴 YANLIŞ VETO | SECRET GIRL KG SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | LION ROBERO | 0.2138 | BANT | ⬜ | — | — |
| Bursa-K8 | İCLAL HANIM | 0.187 | BANT | — | NADİYEKINALI | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | KIR BUMERANG | 0.1299 | BANT | — | ARATŞAH KG DB SK | 5 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 8 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%25). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Sert veto: 2 ayakta tetiklendi, 1'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (32389 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-09-14).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %50 (8/16) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %31 (5/16) · kör nokta 0/16
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | THINDER OF SHINE | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K2 | KAZAN GİRİL | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K3 | FİKRET ABİ | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K4 | BODRUM RÜZGARI | 12 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K5 | DEMRENİN KIZI | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K6 | TYPHOON | 8 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K7 | PERHAPS | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K8 | NADİYEKINALI | 5 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | SECRET GIRL | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | ÇİÇEKMAST | 7 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | ARATŞAH | 5 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | İLKBAHAR KIZI | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | AĞASAÇAN | 15 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | HAMDİ AĞA | 11 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | LOVESICK GRILS | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | LION ROBERO | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">162</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="369.8" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="503.8" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">128</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="312.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="446.0" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">108</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="179.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="313.1" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">62</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="179.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="313.1" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">62</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="31.8" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="165.8" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">11</text></svg>
ambar 308464 at-koşusu · 1832 gün · TRAIN <2026-07-17 (297456) · TEST >=2026-07-17 (11008)
KAĞIT lift TRAIN=1.661(n=63680) TEST=1.536(n=2181) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
IŞIK lift TRAIN=1.458(n=80958) TEST=1.516(n=2780) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
H2H lift TRAIN=1.375(n=83273) TEST=1.398(n=2921) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
MERCEK lift TRAIN=1.174(n=98559) TEST=1.127(n=3760) → çarpan 1.122→1.125 [guncellendi]
ANTRENÖR lift TRAIN=1.035(n=174015) TEST=1.006(n=6545) → çarpan 1.048→1.027 [guncellendi]
JOKEY lift TRAIN=1.264(n=10281) TEST=1.420(n=2438) → çarpan 1.350→1.375 [guncellendi]
İDMAN lift TRAIN=—(n=0) TEST=—(n=0) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [atlandi-veri-yok]
BARİYER lift TRAIN=0.912(n=5519) TEST=0.983(n=245) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [dondu-n-yetersiz (n_train=5519 n_test=245 < 300)]
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.mdTam detay: 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.md · 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.