🔍 POST-MORTEM

14 Ekim 2026
%69
M1 isabet · oynanan 11/16 ayak

Günün kazananları · 14 Ekim 2026

16 koşu · ganyana göre, sürpriz önde · kaynak TJK resmî sonuç

GÜLERYÜZ İstanbul K6 26.40 · sürpriz · SEYRAN ABLA Elazığ K7 24.20 · sürpriz · KING YILDIRIM Elazığ K2 17.30 · sürpriz · VALTROX İstanbul K2 9.15 · SEYYARETAY Elazığ K3 6.55 · DELİ UMUT İstanbul K4 6.25 · YAMAN ÖZGE İstanbul K8 5.10 · KATANA BOY Elazığ K8 5.05 · BIÇKIN KRAL Elazığ K4 4.70 · RODİNYA Elazığ K6 3.10 · YAZ MELTEMİ Elazığ K1 2.90 · GIANT WAVE İstanbul K7 2.50 · BROARTS İstanbul K5 2.15 · MİHRA FARAH İstanbul K1 1.80 · PRENS LAUTARO İstanbul K3 1.70 · YALNIZ TURBO Elazığ K5 1.30

Sim-Race uyumu · 14 Ekim 2026

sim ne kadar tuttu: sıra uyumu ortalama %41 · podyum 24/48 · kazanan sim 1.si 7/16 koşu

SİM
koşusim ilk 3gerçek ilk 3kazanan sim #podyumuyum
Elazığ 1YAZ MELTEMİ · GÜLPAŞA · KAHRAMANYAZ MELTEMİ · ALGHABRA · KOĞUN SESİ11/39
Elazığ 2WAKABAYASHI · CHEF BUĞRA · LADY ÇEVİKKING YILDIRIM · LADY ÇEVİK · VAREGON51/30
Elazığ 3LEZGİNTAY · SON KRALİÇE · BERFİN GELİNSEYYARETAY · SEDERİ GÜZELİ · ÖZTÜRK PINARI50/37
Elazığ 4BIÇKIN KRAL · KING GÖKÇE · BARBAROSOĞLUBIÇKIN KRAL · KING GÖKÇE · DEMİR ATLAS12/352
Elazığ 5YALNIZ TURBO · İREM HATUN · BİÇERROZAYALNIZ TURBO · KIZIM ATİK · BİÇERROZA12/363
Elazığ 6RODİNYA · MEYMENE · CİNDERELLARODİNYA · CİNDERELLA · GAYECAN12/376
Elazığ 7RHEA · RECEPPAŞA · AFRİKA SULTANISEYRAN ABLA · RHEA · ALİYE ANA141/313
Elazığ 8MELONI · PROBABLY THE BEST · DÜZCE ASLANIKATANA BOY · NATIONAL HERO · THE SNAKE PIT90/30
İstanbul 1ADA EFSANESİ · MİHRA FARAH · WHITE CASTLEMİHRA FARAH · WHITE CASTLE · KRALİÇE BADE22/364
İstanbul 2ŞAFAKATEŞ · KING OF PROTI · HOLA Y CHAOVALTROX · ŞAFAKATEŞ · KING OF PROTI62/360
İstanbul 3PRENS LAUTARO · SÜPER HAN · THIEF IN MARRAKESHPRENS LAUTARO · SÜPER HAN · THIEF IN MARRAKESH13/375
İstanbul 4SÜPER SONİK · BİNBİR FATİH · DELİ UMUTDELİ UMUT · BALDER · SÜPER SONİK32/355
İstanbul 5BROARTS · VISENYA · NYMPHADORA TONKSBROARTS · VISENYA · MY RAINY HEART12/370
İstanbul 6GÖZPINARI · AYLAK KIZ · ALBASTI TAYGÜLERYÜZ · KESKİN KUŞ · GÖZPINARI91/326
İstanbul 7GIANT WAVE · BAY MENTOR · TERRAFERMAGIANT WAVE · BEST LINE · BAY MENTOR12/350
İstanbul 8FEYZANUR · ŞENGÜL SULTAN · SAROSLUYAMAN ÖZGE · ŞENGÜL SULTAN · CAN ŞEHRİBAN61/343

Uyum = sim sırası ile gerçek bitiş arasındaki Spearman korelasyonu, 0-100 (rastgele sıralama ~0). Koşu öncesi mühürlenen olasılıklardan; derece modellenmez.

TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez

Kart: Elazığ, İstanbul

🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 6/16 — %38

(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)

AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu

K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)

ayakbandımızkazananAGFsonuç
KElazığ-K1YAZ MELTEMİ · GÜLPAŞAYAZ MELTEMİ1✅ BANTTA
KElazığ-K2WAKABAYASHI · CHEF BUĞRAKING YILDIRIM4❌ KAÇTI
KElazığ-K3SEDERİ GÜZELİ · SON KRALİÇE · LEZGİNTAY · BERFİN GELİN · RUHİNAZSEYYARETAY4❌ KAÇTI
KElazığ-K4KILIÇBAĞI · BIÇKIN KRAL · KING GÖKÇEBIÇKIN KRAL1✅ BANTTA
KElazığ-K5YALNIZ TURBO · BELALI CİBEK · İREM HATUN · KIZIM ATİKYALNIZ TURBO1✅ BANTTA
KElazığ-K6MEYMENE · RODİNYARODİNYA1✅ BANTTA
KElazığ-K7RHEA · PRENSES FADİLE · BALHANKU · RECEPPAŞA · AFRİKA SULTANISEYRAN ABLA11❌ KAÇTI
KElazığ-K8ÇUKUROVA PEHLİVANI · PROBABLY THE BEST · MELONI · DÜZCE ASLANI · MAVERICK SHADOWKATANA BOY2❌ KAÇTI
Kİstanbul-K1ADA EFSANESİ · MİHRA FARAHMİHRA FARAH1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K2ŞAFAKATEŞ · KING OF PROTI · HOLA Y CHAO · DARKROK · DARKROK · VALTROXVALTROX4✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K3PRENS LAUTARO · SÜPER HANPRENS LAUTARO1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K4DELİ UMUT · SÜPER SONİKDELİ UMUT2✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K5BROARTS · VISENYABROARTS1✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K6GÖZPINARI · DENİZ KESTANESİ · ALBASTI TAY · GÜLERYÜZ · İLLEDE DORU · KURŞUNİLİ · KILIÇ KIZI · KESKİN KUŞ · AYLAK KIZ · KESKİN KUŞ · EPARVENGÜLERYÜZ11✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K7GIANT WAVE · BAY MENTOR · LORD OF LIGHTGIANT WAVE2✅ BANTTA
Kİstanbul-K8FEYZANUR · GÜZEL ZEHRA · CAN ŞEHRİBAN · SAROSLU · HAYDİ SEVDA · ŞENGÜL SULTANYAMAN ÖZGE3❌ KAÇTI

M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 11/16 — %69
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)

(tüm ayaklar dahil: 11/16 — %69)

KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü

  • Elazığ · K1→K6 — 2. ayakta düştü (Elazığ-K2 · KING YILDIRIM)
  • Elazığ · K3→K8 — 1. ayakta düştü (Elazığ-K3 · SEYYARETAY)
  • İstanbul · K1→K6 — 🎉 TÜM AYAKLAR TUTTU
  • İstanbul · K3→K8 — 6. ayakta düştü (İstanbul-K8 · YAMAN ÖZGE)

SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu

Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?

ayakAGF-1bantta mıydıkazandı mı
Elazığ-K1Yaz Meltemi̇✅🏆 KAZANDI
Elazığ-K2Wakabayashi✅—
Elazığ-K3Son Krali̇çe✅—
Elazığ-K4Biçkin Kral✅🏆 KAZANDI
Elazığ-K5Yalniz Turbo✅🏆 KAZANDI
Elazığ-K6Rodi̇nya✅🏆 KAZANDI
Elazığ-K7Rhea✅—
Elazığ-K8The Snake Pit❌ DIŞARIDA—
İstanbul-K1Mi̇hra Farah✅🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K2Şafakateş✅—
İstanbul-K3Prens Lautaro✅🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K4Süper Soni̇k✅—
İstanbul-K5Broarts✅🏆 KAZANDI
İstanbul-K6Gözpinari✅—
İstanbul-K7Bay Mentor✅—
İstanbul-K8Feyzanur✅—

Bugün: AGF-1 1 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 0 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)

🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi

Atılan TEK: 1/2 (beklenti ~%49 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))

ayakTEKpkararsonuçkazanankazanan AGF
İstanbul-K3PRENS LAUTARO0.4992TEK✅ TUTTUPRENS LAUTARO1
İstanbul-K5VISENYA0.4892VETO · PIST-DONUS✅ haklı vetoBROARTS DB SKG SK1
Elazığ-K7RHEA0.4841TEK❌SEYRAN ABLA KG K11
İstanbul-K2ŞAFAKATEŞ0.4547TEK-ADAY—VALTROX KG SK4
Elazığ-K2CHEF BUĞRA0.4104TEK-ADAY—KING YILDIRIM SK4
Elazığ-K1YAZ MELTEMİ0.4081VETO · DOGU-K1🔴 YANLIŞ VETOYAZ MELTEMİ DB SKG SK1
İstanbul-K7GIANT WAVE0.3949TEK-ADAY⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)GIANT WAVE SK2
İstanbul-K1ADA EFSANESİ0.3896BANT—MİHRA FARAH SK1
İstanbul-K8FEYZANUR0.3807BANT—YAMAN ÖZGE SK3
Elazığ-K6MEYMENE0.353TEK-ADAY—RODİNYA DB SK1
Elazığ-K8ÇUKUROVA PEHLİVANI0.3511BANT⬜——
İstanbul-K6GÖZPINARI0.3407BANT—GÜLERYÜZ KG K DB11
Elazığ-K5YALNIZ TURBO0.3174BANT⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)YALNIZ TURBO DB1
Elazığ-K3LEZGİNTAY0.2997BANT—SEYYARETAY DB SKG SK4
Elazığ-K4BIÇKIN KRAL0.2987BANT⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi)BIÇKIN KRAL KG K1
İstanbul-K4DELİ UMUT0.292VETO · PIST-DONUS🔴 YANLIŞ VETODELİ UMUT K2

Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 6 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%33). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.

Sert veto: 3 ayakta tetiklendi, 2'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md

Bu tablo TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.

🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ

Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (32923 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-10-14).

Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %50 (8/16) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %38 (6/16) · kör nokta 1/16

ayakkazananorkestra sırasıteşhis
Elazığ-K1YAZ MELTEMİ1✅ sistem çalıştı
Elazığ-K2KING YILDIRIM4🔴 KÖR NOKTA
Elazığ-K3SEYYARETAY7🟠 ağırlık düşük
Elazığ-K4BIÇKIN KRAL2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
Elazığ-K5YALNIZ TURBO1✅ sistem çalıştı
Elazığ-K6RODİNYA4🟠 kol dar kalmış
Elazığ-K7SEYRAN ABLA12🔴 ceza fazla sert
Elazığ-K8KATANA BOY15🔴 ceza fazla sert
İstanbul-K1MİHRA FARAH2🟡 bantta, 1. değil
İstanbul-K2VALTROX7🔴 ceza fazla sert
İstanbul-K3PRENS LAUTARO1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K4DELİ UMUT1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K5BROARTS1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K6GÜLERYÜZ4🟠 kol dar kalmış
İstanbul-K7GIANT WAVE1✅ sistem çalıştı
İstanbul-K8YAMAN ÖZGE9🟠 ağırlık düşük

🔴 1 KÖR NOKTA bugün — motorun 9 izlenen katmanından HİÇBİRİ ateşlemedi, ama at kazandı:

  • KING YILDIRIM (Elazığ-K2, kadro 7) — hiç sinyal yok. "o atta ne vardı?" sorusu — yeni sinyal adayı ara.

Trend — son 30 gün

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y="254" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:10px" fill="#2d3748">M1 (bant)</text><circle cx="132" cy="250" r="3.5" fill="#2f855a"/><text x="140" y="254" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:10px" fill="#2d3748">M3 (1. sıra)</text></svg>

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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">153</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="419.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="553.1" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">137</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="305.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="439.9" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">100</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="211.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="345.1" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">69</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="204.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="338.9" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">67</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="24.5" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="158.5" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">8</text></svg>

Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.

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