TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Bursa, Şanlıurfa
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Bursa-K1 | AYSERA HATUN · AKÇİVİ · HÜMAPETRA | HÜKÜMDAR KILICI | 6 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K2 | I LOVE SPEED · AZA KOP | AZA KOP | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K3 | DAĞ YONCASI · KARAGÜRGEN · TEKÖMER | ÇUKUROVA EFESİ | 2 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K4 | RAYMOND BABBITT · DRAGON BLUE · RECUERDAME · IŞILS A MELİNA · TOUCH THE CLOUD · MİKEA · DRAGON HERO · WADRON · KIZIM BERİL | DRAGON HERO | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K5 | ALPLİ · DELİ MERCAN · İCLAL HANIM · YALNIZ AŞIK · FATİHİNASLANI | YALNIZ AŞIK | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K6 | DENİZ KASIRGASI · GÜLERYÜZ · TİRİLYE KARTALI · DORUKBATUR · FİKRET ABİ | DENİZ KASIRGASI | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K7 | DOMANİÇ BEYİ | AHSURBİKE | 1 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K8 | LADY BEGÜM · SILENT TOUCH · RED SMOKE · BOUNDLESS GLORY · SYRENA · HILDA · SHAERA · LIFE AND LIGHT · ENHEDUANNA · LUPIN · ENHEDUANNA · LUPIN | SILENT TOUCH | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K1 | LION ESMER · BERNAMCAN | MR ÇINAR | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K2 | BİLDENCAN · BABA AKİF · BEG DOĞAN · GÖKAYKIZ | BİLDENCAN | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K3 | SAKLIKAPI · MİRA CETİ · SERT RÜZGAR · YILAN DERELİ · DARK SOUL · DARK REIGN | PATPAT | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K4 | KETRİN · RECEPPAŞA | BUZ KRALİÇESİ | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K5 | HAÇIM · KNIGHT OF THE ROAD · GOLD POWER | HAÇIM | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K6 | FIRST BREATH | NOW SEE ME | 2 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K7 | YAZ MELTEMİ · AĞADİZDAR | AĞADİZDAR | 3 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K8 | DEBDEBE · CENGEBEY · BÜYÜK YÜREKLİ · AKTAŞBEYLİ · CİNDERELLA · ABAY HANIM · DEVRİALEM · ÇELİK SEMEND · TARGUTAY · ÇELİK SEMEND | TARGUTAY | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 9/16 — %56
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 9/16 — %56)
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | Akçi̇vi̇ | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K2 | I Love Speed | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K3 | Dağ Yoncasi | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K4 | Raymond Babbitt | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K5 | Yalniz Aşik | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K6 | Deni̇z Kasirgasi | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K7 | Ahsurbi̇ke | ❌ DIŞARIDA | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K8 | Silent Touch | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | Lion Esmer | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | Bi̇ldencan | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | Sert Rüzgar | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | Receppaşa | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | Haçim | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | First Breath | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | Yaz Meltemi̇ | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | Debdebe | ✅ | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 1 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 1 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
Atılan TEK: 0/3 (beklenti ~%45 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | LION ESMER | 0.5897 | VETO · DOGU-K1 | ✅ haklı veto | MR ÇINAR KG K | 5 |
| Bursa-K7 | DOMANİÇ BEYİ | 0.4922 | TEK | ❌ | AHSURBİKE KG DB SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | FIRST BREATH | 0.4401 | TEK | ❌ | NOW SEE ME KG SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K3 | DAĞ YONCASI | 0.4284 | TEK | ❌ | ÇUKUROVA EFESİ KG DB SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K4 | RAYMOND BABBITT | 0.4167 | TEK-ADAY | — | DRAGON HERO DB SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K6 | DENİZ KASIRGASI | 0.398 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | DENİZ KASIRGASI SK | 1 |
| Bursa-K5 | ALPLİ | 0.3608 | BANT | — | YALNIZ AŞIK KG SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | BİLDENCAN | 0.3583 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | BİLDENCAN KG K | 1 |
| Bursa-K8 | LADY BEGÜM | 0.3481 | BANT | — | SILENT TOUCH KG K DB | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | SAKLIKAPI | 0.3456 | BANT | — | PATPAT KG DB SK | 4 |
| Bursa-K2 | I LOVE SPEED | 0.3279 | BANT | — | AZA KOP SKG SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K1 | AYSERA HATUN | 0.2995 | VETO · ACILIS-KALABALIK | ✅ haklı veto | HÜKÜMDAR KILICI DB SK | 6 |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | YAZ MELTEMİ | 0.2917 | BANT | — | AĞADİZDAR KG SK | 3 |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | KNIGHT OF THE ROAD | 0.2538 | BANT | — | HAÇIM SKG SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | DEBDEBE | 0.2497 | BANT | ⬜ | — | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | YEŞİLVADİ GÜLÜ | 0.2168 | BANT | — | BUZ KRALİÇESİ KG SK | 4 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 9 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%22). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Sert veto: 2 ayakta tetiklendi, 0'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (32516 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-09-21).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %56 (9/16) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %25 (4/16) · kör nokta 0/16
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | HÜKÜMDAR KILICI | 12 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K2 | AZA KOP | 4 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Bursa-K3 | ÇUKUROVA EFESİ | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K4 | DRAGON HERO | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Bursa-K5 | YALNIZ AŞIK | 5 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K6 | DENİZ KASIRGASI | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K7 | AHSURBİKE | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K8 | SILENT TOUCH | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | MR ÇINAR | 3 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | BİLDENCAN | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | PATPAT | 12 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | BUZ KRALİÇESİ | 4 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | HAÇIM | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | NOW SEE ME | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | AĞADİZDAR | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | TARGUTAY | 13 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">149</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="414.6" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="548.6" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">132</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="339.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="473.2" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">108</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="248.1" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="382.1" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">79</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="182.2" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="316.2" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">58</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="22.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="156.0" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">7</text></svg>
ambar 309828 at-koşusu · 1839 gün · TRAIN <2026-07-24 (298710) · TEST >=2026-07-24 (11118)
KAĞIT lift TRAIN=1.661(n=63929) TEST=1.536(n=2194) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
IŞIK lift TRAIN=1.458(n=81280) TEST=1.504(n=2832) → çarpan 1.375→1.387 [guncellendi]
H2H lift TRAIN=1.375(n=83572) TEST=1.387(n=2970) → çarpan 1.375→1.381 [guncellendi]
MERCEK lift TRAIN=1.174(n=98982) TEST=1.130(n=3840) → çarpan 1.122→1.126 [guncellendi]
ANTRENÖR lift TRAIN=1.021(n=186175) TEST=1.019(n=6973) → çarpan 1.048→1.034 [guncellendi]
JOKEY lift TRAIN=1.229(n=14796) TEST=1.434(n=2771) → çarpan 1.350→1.375 [guncellendi]
İDMAN lift TRAIN=—(n=0) TEST=—(n=0) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [atlandi-veri-yok]
BARİYER lift TRAIN=0.913(n=5546) TEST=0.885(n=255) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [dondu-n-yetersiz (n_train=5546 n_test=255 < 300)]
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.mdTam detay: 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.md · 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.