🔍 POST-MORTEM
2 Kasım 2026Günün kazananları · 2 Kasım 2026
MAÇKA BEY · KOLAYSA YAKALA · KUTUP KIZI · GOZEYOĞLU · GÖLGE ADAM · LADY CLASSMAN · KARAMAHMUTOĞLU · AVDANCI · ASPUWA · FEARLESS DRAGON · PEKALP · ALL FIRST · ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN · BODE A WINNER · MİR ATHENA · DARK REIGN · ŞAFİYE
Sim-Race uyumu · 2 Kasım 2026
| koşu | sim ilk 3 | gerçek ilk 3 | kazanan sim # | podyum | uyum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa 1 | ŞAFİYE · SELLY SU · LITTLE FLORENTINA | ŞAFİYE · LITTLE FLORENTINA · SELLY SU | 1 | 3/3 | 71 |
| Bursa 2 | ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN · ESDRAGON · SEZGİNAĞA | ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN · ESDRAGON · ŞENSOY | 1 | 2/3 | 77 |
| Bursa 3 | ALL FIRST · ASABİ ÇOCUK · SHADOW GENIUS | ALL FIRST · SHADOW GENIUS · SON CESİ | 1 | 2/3 | 43 |
| Bursa 4 | KARAT · KAYALARIN ASLANI · TORUN SADA | KOLAYSA YAKALA · HULUSİBEY · TOPLUSER | 8 | 0/3 | 0 |
| Bursa 5 | KAPTAN İRFAN · SERT KOŞU · BİLGETUNA | GÖLGE ADAM · KAPTAN İRFAN · BİLGETUNA | 5 | 2/3 | 48 |
| Bursa 6 | FEARLESS DRAGON · SHARP STORM · AL SAROUT | FEARLESS DRAGON · MİKEA · AL SAROUT | 1 | 2/3 | 65 |
| Bursa 7 | BODE A WINNER · HAS SERÇE · ANGEL OF DEFNE | BODE A WINNER · HAS SERÇE · ANGEL OF DEFNE | 1 | 3/3 | 69 |
| Bursa 8 | DİSU BEY · SERTESEN · ÇAĞIM | GOZEYOĞLU · DİSU BEY · ÖZASYALI | 5 | 1/3 | 51 |
| Bursa 9 | PATRONA HOLİ · ÇEPNİ · MY DEAR DREAM | LADY CLASSMAN · MY DEAR DREAM · ÇEPNİ | 4 | 2/3 | 67 |
| Şanlıurfa 1 | KENTUCKY BLAZE · SERT RÜZGAR · KING BOREAS | DARK REIGN · KING BOREAS · KENTUCKY BLAZE | 7 | 2/3 | 50 |
| Şanlıurfa 2 | RECEPPAŞA · AMİRSOYLU · DOKTOR MEMO | KARAMAHMUTOĞLU · MİRAÇHAT · KÜÇÜKDEMİRCİK | 9 | 0/3 | 15 |
| Şanlıurfa 3 | WIND CITY · POWER OF IRON · GANADORES | ASPUWA · POWER OF IRON · PAPA CLAS | 4 | 1/3 | 54 |
| Şanlıurfa 4 | MOONFAIRY · KIZIM ELAY · BUMMER GIRL | KUTUP KIZI · BUMMER GIRL · ALTUNCAN | 8 | 1/3 | 51 |
| Şanlıurfa 5 | AVDANCI · ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · DİLEK ABLA | AVDANCI · ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · KÜLLAHÇI | 1 | 2/3 | 30 |
| Şanlıurfa 6 | MİR ATHENA · RUHİNAZ · NARLIGÖL | MİR ATHENA · EZGİL FIRTINASI · RUHİNAZ | 1 | 2/3 | 65 |
| Şanlıurfa 7 | PEKALP · DEBDEBE · SON AKTAŞ | PEKALP · SANPMAN · ÇİÇEKMAST | 1 | 1/3 | 43 |
| Şanlıurfa 8 | BABA AKİF · SUKAS · ADNANHAN | MAÇKA BEY · DENİZBERK · BİRİNCİSOY | 11 | 0/3 | 5 |
TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Bursa, Şanlıurfa
🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 3/17 — %18
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K | Bursa-K1 | ŞAFİYE · LITTLE FLORENTINA | ŞAFİYE | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K2 | ŞENSOY · ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN · ESDRAGON · CİHANDERE · GÖKKILIÇ | ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K3 | SHADOW GENIUS · ALL FIRST | ALL FIRST | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K4 | KONÇİÇEK · HULUSİBEY · KARAT · KAYALARIN ASLANI · TORUN SADA | KOLAYSA YAKALA | 8 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K5 | ASLAN ARAS · SERT KOŞU · LAVEKAR · KAPTAN İRFAN | GÖLGE ADAM | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K6 | AL SAROUT · FEARLESS DRAGON · SHARP STORM | FEARLESS DRAGON | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K7 | HAS SERÇE · BODE A WINNER | BODE A WINNER | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K8 | SERTESEN · DİSU BEY · CABALLO | GOZEYOĞLU | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K9 | PATRONA HOLİ · ÇEPNİ · MY DEAR DREAM | LADY CLASSMAN | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K1 | KENTUCKY BLAZE · SERT RÜZGAR · TAHİRBEYLİ · DARK SOUL · DARK REIGN | DARK REIGN | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K2 | RECEPPAŞA · DOKTOR MEMO · AMİRSOYLU | KARAMAHMUTOĞLU | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K3 | ASPUWA · WIND CITY · HARDY İSMAİL | ASPUWA | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K4 | MOONFAIRY · SAKLIKAPI · KIZIM ELAY · ALTUNCAN · COMING RAIN · TOWSON · TEZGAHTAR NEBAHAT · BUMMER GIRL · FREYDIS · NURBADEM | KUTUP KIZI | 8 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K5 | ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · AVDANCI | AVDANCI | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K6 | MİR ATHENA · RUHİNAZ | MİR ATHENA | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K7 | SON AKTAŞ · PEKALP | PEKALP | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K8 | BABA AKİF · MOSKOVALI TANYA · CANOĞLU YILDIZI · HAŞİM ABİ · MAÇKA BEY · SUKAS · ADNANHAN | MAÇKA BEY | 7 | ✅ BANTTA |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 11/17 — %65
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 11/17 — %65)
KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü
- Bursa · K1→K6 — 4. ayakta düştü (Bursa-K4 · KOLAYSA YAKALA)
- Bursa · K4→K9 — 1. ayakta düştü (Bursa-K4 · KOLAYSA YAKALA)
- Şanlıurfa · K1→K6 — 2. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K2 · KARAMAHMUTOĞLU)
- Şanlıurfa · K3→K8 — 2. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K4 · KUTUP KIZI)
SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | Şafi̇ye | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K2 | Özgün Başkan | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K3 | Asabi̇ Çocuk | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
| Bursa-K4 | Kayalarin Aslani | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K5 | Kaptan İrfan | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K6 | Fearless Dragon | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K7 | Bode A Winner | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Bursa-K8 | Di̇su Bey | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K9 | Patrona Holi̇ | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | Kentucky Blaze | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | Receppaşa | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | Wind City | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | Moonfairy | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | Çakal Çökerten | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | Mi̇r Athena | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | Pekalp | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | Baba Aki̇f | ✅ | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 1 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 0 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi
Atılan TEK: 0/3 (beklenti ~%35 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN | 0.3756 | TEK | ❌ | AVDANCI | 2 |
| Bursa-K3 | SHADOW GENIUS | 0.3517 | TEK | ❌ | ALL FIRST DB SKG SK | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | SON AKTAŞ | 0.3362 | TEK-ADAY | — | PEKALP DB SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | MİR ATHENA | 0.3324 | TEK-ADAY | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | MİR ATHENA KG SK | 1 |
| Bursa-K7 | HAS SERÇE | 0.3196 | TEK | ❌ | BODE A WINNER KG K | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | ASPUWA | 0.3003 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | ASPUWA KG SK | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | KENTUCKY BLAZE | 0.2654 | VETO · DOGU-K1 | ✅ haklı veto | DARK REIGN KG DB SK | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | BABA AKİF | 0.2554 | BANT | ⬜ | — | — |
| Bursa-K4 | KONÇİÇEK | 0.2478 | TEK-ADAY | — | KOLAYSA YAKALA KG SK | 8 |
| Bursa-K1 | ŞAFİYE | 0.239 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | ŞAFİYE K | 1 |
| Bursa-K2 | ŞENSOY | 0.2303 | BANT | — | ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN KG DB SK | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | MOONFAIRY | 0.2129 | BANT | — | KUTUP KIZI SKG SK | 8 |
| Bursa-K6 | AL SAROUT | 0.2124 | BANT | — | FEARLESS DRAGON KG DB SK | 1 |
| Bursa-K8 | SERTESEN | 0.2036 | BANT | — | GOZEYOĞLU KG DB GKR | 5 |
| Bursa-K5 | SERT KOŞU | 0.1809 | BANT | — | GÖLGE ADAM KG K DB GKR | 4 |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | RECEPPAŞA | 0.1776 | BANT | — | KARAMAHMUTOĞLU K DB SKG | 5 |
| Bursa-K9 | PATRONA HOLİ | 0.1645 | BANT | — | LADY CLASSMAN KG DB SK | 4 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 9 ayağın 2'inde aday yine kazandı (%22). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Sert veto: 1 ayakta tetiklendi, 0'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (33247 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-11-02).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %59 (10/17) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %18 (3/17) · kör nokta 0/17
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | ŞAFİYE | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K2 | ÖZGÜN BAŞKAN | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K3 | ALL FIRST | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K4 | KOLAYSA YAKALA | 11 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K5 | GÖLGE ADAM | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K6 | FEARLESS DRAGON | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K7 | BODE A WINNER | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K8 | GOZEYOĞLU | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Bursa-K9 | LADY CLASSMAN | 7 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | DARK REIGN | 6 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | KARAMAHMUTOĞLU | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | ASPUWA | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | KUTUP KIZI | 8 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | AVDANCI | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | MİR ATHENA | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | PEKALP | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | MAÇKA BEY | 6 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
Trend — son 30 gün
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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">158</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="444.3" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="578.3" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">150</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="239.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="373.9" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">81</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="192.5" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="326.5" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">65</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="165.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="299.9" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">56</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="26.7" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="160.7" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">9</text></svg>
🔧 Haftalık katman çarpanı — Pazartesi tetiği
ambar 317655 at-koşusu · 1881 gün · TRAIN <2026-09-04 (306400) · TEST >=2026-09-04 (11255)
KAĞIT lift TRAIN=1.657(n=65465) TEST=1.673(n=2213) → çarpan 1.397→1.398 [guncellendi]
IŞIK lift TRAIN=1.459(n=83237) TEST=1.448(n=2849) → çarpan 1.397→1.398 [guncellendi]
H2H lift TRAIN=1.376(n=85608) TEST=1.415(n=3203) → çarpan 1.395→1.397 [guncellendi]
MERCEK lift TRAIN=1.173(n=101627) TEST=1.127(n=3923) → çarpan 1.157→1.142 [guncellendi]
ANTRENÖR lift TRAIN=1.021(n=191032) TEST=1.038(n=6993) → çarpan 1.034→1.036 [guncellendi]
JOKEY lift TRAIN=1.108(n=21035) TEST=1.210(n=3539) → çarpan 1.306→1.258 [guncellendi]
İDMAN lift TRAIN=—(n=0) TEST=—(n=0) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [atlandi-veri-yok]
BARİYER lift TRAIN=0.916(n=5675) TEST=0.871(n=472) → çarpan 0.833→0.852 [guncellendi]
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.mdTam detay: 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.md · 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.