🔍 POST-MORTEM
26 Ekim 2026Günün kazananları · 26 Ekim 2026
GANADORES · AYCASA · BERRYBELLA · TAHT ALAN · HEART SHOT · DİREN KAPORTACI · GREY GARDEN · SON OF THE KNIFE · İSMETİM · APOLLON · KOÇİNOĞLU · HUN DAY · CEMO CAN · KING LIGHTNING · ACOUSTIC SONG · SİRENE
Sim-Race uyumu · 26 Ekim 2026
| koşu | sim ilk 3 | gerçek ilk 3 | kazanan sim # | podyum | uyum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa 1 | SİRENE · DARKWAY · BLACK VICTORY | SİRENE · DARKWAY · FREEZING STEEL | 1 | 2/3 | 46 |
| Bursa 2 | APOLLON · MY DEAR DREAM · BEBEĞİM OLDUN | APOLLON · MY DEAR DREAM · BEBEĞİM OLDUN | 1 | 3/3 | 73 |
| Bursa 3 | TOUCH THE TOP · İNANBABA · MUKADDES HATUN | GREY GARDEN · WINELA · İNANBABA | 7 | 1/3 | 0 |
| Bursa 4 | CANTALOUPE · BRUSK SHOT · YAMATAİ | SON OF THE KNIFE · CANTALOUPE · BRUSK SHOT | 4 | 2/3 | 83 |
| Bursa 5 | NAERYS · ACOUSTIC SONG · TYPHOON | ACOUSTIC SONG · NAERYS · SHEEP STEALER | 2 | 2/3 | 68 |
| Bursa 6 | KÜÇÜK AZAT · KOÇİNOĞLU · İNCİ PAREM | KOÇİNOĞLU · BARLİN AĞA · KÜÇÜK AZAT | 2 | 2/3 | 68 |
| Bursa 7 | MÜRDÜN KIZ · MENDERES KIZI · DAĞ YONCASI | AYCASA · YILDIZ SOY · DAĞ YONCASI | 8 | 1/3 | 76 |
| Şanlıurfa 1 | NORTHERN TOUCH · BALİ GIRL · WALLEY OF DAWN | DİREN KAPORTACI · BALİ GIRL · MY MIRAGE | 4 | 1/3 | 5 |
| Şanlıurfa 2 | CEMO CAN · ELELE · NURBADEM | CEMO CAN · ALTUNCAN · ELELE | 1 | 2/3 | 55 |
| Şanlıurfa 3 | ADDISON · SNOWDRIFT · SWEETY CAMELIA | BERRYBELLA · QUEEN IQRA · SNOWDRIFT | 4 | 1/3 | 45 |
| Şanlıurfa 4 | HUN DAY · ALEMİCİHAN · ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN | HUN DAY · ÇELİK ŞAHİN · ALEMİCİHAN | 1 | 2/3 | 67 |
| Şanlıurfa 5 | MY ARES · RÜZGAR AGAH · BY CURA | İSMETİM · LION ROBERO · TEZGAHTAR NEBAHAT | 6 | 0/3 | 25 |
| Şanlıurfa 6 | HEARTED · HAÇIM · KING LIGHTNING | KING LIGHTNING · HAÇIM · THE REAL HERO | 3 | 2/3 | 55 |
| Şanlıurfa 7 | LION OF THE NORTH · SUN OF POWER · KING İZZET | GANADORES · SECRET GIRL · LION OF THE NORTH | 8 | 1/3 | 0 |
| Şanlıurfa 8 | CELESTARA · MINISTER GIRL · AGRESİF LADY | HEART SHOT · MINISTER GIRL · AGRESİF LADY | 10 | 2/3 | 18 |
| Şanlıurfa 9 | SADIKEFE · TAM BİR SAVAŞÇI · KRALDOĞAN | TAHT ALAN · KRALDOĞAN · GÜVENABİ | 10 | 1/3 | 18 |
TJK_PM.py · otomatik · YORUM içermez
Kart: Bursa, Şanlıurfa
🎯 M3 — motor-1 sıra isabeti: 2/16 — %12
(misyon metriği — MİSYON-TEK-ARAYISI.md: "M1 değil M3". Tüm kart, kupon/izlenen ayrımı yok.)
AYAK AYAK — bant tuttu mu
K = kuponda oynandı · M = yalnız motor bandı (kupona girmedi)
| ayak | bandımız | kazanan | AGF | sonuç | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | Bursa-K1 | SİRENE · DARKWAY | SİRENE | ? | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K2 | ALPS FIRE · BEBEĞİM OLDUN · MURATIN KIZI · MY LIFE FIRE · MODİGLİANİ · MY DEAR DREAM · APOLLON · ROZERYA | APOLLON | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K3 | MUKADDES HATUN · TOUCH THE TOP | GREY GARDEN | 7 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K4 | BRUSK SHOT · CANTALOUPE | SON OF THE KNIFE | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Bursa-K5 | NAERYS · SHEEP STEALER · IŞILS A MELİNA · ACOUSTIC SONG | ACOUSTIC SONG | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K6 | KÜÇÜK AZAT · KOÇİNOĞLU | KOÇİNOĞLU | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Bursa-K7 | MÜRDÜN KIZ · EĞRİCAN · MENDERES KIZI · DAĞ YONCASI · AYCASA · HÜMALI KIZ · CÜDA · KURUÇAY · GÜZEL HUYLUM | AYCASA | 9 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K1 | EASTERN DIVA · NORTHERN TOUCH | DİREN KAPORTACI | 5 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K2 | CEMO CAN · ELELE · FREYDIS · FEEL THE BEAT | CEMO CAN | 2 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K3 | MONICA SULTAN · ADDISON · SNOWDRIFT · CEYLAN · MISS VIRGINIA · YOU ARE A RAIN · SWEETY CAMELIA · QUEEN IQRA · BERRYBELLA · KIR BUMERANG | BERRYBELLA | 7 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K4 | ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN · HUN DAY | HUN DAY | 1 | ✅ BANTTA |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K5 | MY ARES · EL VERDUGO · REEZ · BY CURA · DANİSKA · RÜZGAR AGAH · LION ROBERO · TOWSON · BERAT KAAN | İSMETİM | 4 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K6 | HAÇIM · HEARTED | KING LIGHTNING | 1 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K7 | LION OF THE NORTH · PINAR · SUN OF POWER · PRINCESS AZRA | GANADORES | 8 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K8 | MERYEMCAN · CELESTARA | HEART SHOT | 7 | ❌ KAÇTI |
| K | Şanlıurfa-K9 | HAMDİ AĞA · SEYRANTAY · TAM BİR SAVAŞÇI · SADIKEFE · KRALDOĞAN | TAHT ALAN | 9 | ❌ KAÇTI |
M1 · OYNANAN ayaklar: 7/15 — %47
(bant isabeti — misyon metriği DEĞİL, bkz. yukarıdaki M3)
(tüm ayaklar dahil: 8/16 — %50)
KUPON — kaçıncı ayakta düştü
- Bursa · K2→K7 — 2. ayakta düştü (Bursa-K3 · GREY GARDEN)
- Şanlıurfa · K1→K6 — 1. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K1 · DİREN KAPORTACI)
- Şanlıurfa · K4→K9 — 2. ayakta düştü (Şanlıurfa-K5 · İSMETİM)
SORU-27 · AGF-1 bant dışındayken ne oldu
Biriken ölçüm. Tek gün KARAR VERMEZ — her kart satır ekler.
Soru: motor AGF-1'i dışarıda bıraktığında o at kazanıyor mu, ve kolonu açmak öder mi?
| ayak | AGF-1 | bantta mıydı | kazandı mı |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K2 | My Dear Dream | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K3 | Touch The Top | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K4 | Cantaloupe | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K5 | Naerys | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K6 | Küçük Azat | ✅ | — |
| Bursa-K7 | Mürdün Kiz | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | Northern Touch | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | Elele | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | Addison | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | Hun Day | ✅ | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | Rüzgar Agah | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | King Lightning | ❌ DIŞARIDA | 🏆 KAZANDI |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | Lion Of The North | ✅ | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | Minister Girl | ❌ DIŞARIDA | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K9 | Sadikefe | ✅ | — |
Bugün: AGF-1 2 ayakta bant dışındaydı, 1 tanesi kazandı.
(n küçük — yön göstergesi, mühür değil. v3.1 §10)
🎯 TEK KAPISI — günün karnesi
Atılan TEK: 0/2 (beklenti ~%43 (bugünkü TEK'lerin p ortalaması))
| ayak | TEK | p | karar | sonuç | kazanan | kazanan AGF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K5 | NAERYS | 0.5226 | VETO · PIST-DONUS | ✅ haklı veto | ACOUSTIC SONG KG SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K6 | KÜÇÜK AZAT | 0.5171 | TEK | ❌ | KOÇİNOĞLU DB SK | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | LION OF THE NORTH | 0.3519 | TEK | ❌ | GANADORES KG DB SK | 8 |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | ÇAKAL ÇÖKERTEN | 0.3087 | TEK-ADAY | — | HUN DAY KG K | 1 |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | CEMO CAN | 0.3035 | BANT | ⚠️ aday kazandı (TEK atılabilirdi) | CEMO CAN KG K | 2 |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | EASTERN DIVA | 0.2857 | VETO · DOGU-K1 | ✅ haklı veto | DİREN KAPORTACI K DB SKG | 5 |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | HAÇIM | 0.2806 | TEK-ADAY | — | KING LIGHTNING DB SKG SK | 1 |
| Bursa-K4 | BRUSK SHOT | 0.2805 | TEK-ADAY | — | SON OF THE KNIFE DB SK | 4 |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | MY ARES | 0.2206 | BANT | — | İSMETİM KG K GKR | 4 |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | ADDISON | 0.2183 | BANT | — | BERRYBELLA DB SKG SK | 7 |
| Şanlıurfa-K9 | HAMDİ AĞA | 0.2118 | BANT | ⬜ | — | — |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | MERYEMCAN | 0.204 | BANT | — | HEART SHOT DB SKG SK | 7 |
| Bursa-K7 | MÜRDÜN KIZ | 0.1919 | BANT | — | AYCASA KG K DB | 9 |
| Bursa-K2 | ALPS FIRE | 0.1834 | BANT | — | APOLLON DB SK | 2 |
| Bursa-K1 | DARKWAY | 0.1507 | BANT | — | SİRENE DB SK | — |
| Bursa-K3 | TOUCH THE TOP | 0.1418 | BANT | — | GREY GARDEN KG K | 7 |
Karşı-olgu: TEK atmadığımız 8 ayağın 1'inde aday yine kazandı (%12). Bu oran atılan TEK oranına yaklaşırsa kart başına TEK sayısı artırılabilir.
Sert veto: 2 ayakta tetiklendi, 0'inde aday yine kazandı (yanlış veto). Biriken karne: 07-Data/TEK-KARNE.md
Bu tablo
TEK-DEFTERI.csvden okunur ve her kartta büyür. Bir veto yanlış-veto oranını tabanın (%25-30) üstüne çıkarırsa ölçümle ölür — 14.08 öncesi eksik olan geri besleme buydu.
🔁 ÖĞRENME DÖNGÜSÜ
Otomatik — orkestra_skor_takip_uret.py + svg_grafik.py. Kaynak: ORKESTRA-SKOR-TAKIP.csv (33121 koşu, 2021-08-25 → 2026-10-26).
Bugün: M1 (bant isabeti) %44 (7/16) · M3 (1. sıra isabeti) %12 (2/16) · kör nokta 0/16
| ayak | kazanan | orkestra sırası | teşhis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursa-K1 | SİRENE | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Bursa-K2 | APOLLON | 7 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K3 | GREY GARDEN | 3 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Bursa-K4 | SON OF THE KNIFE | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K5 | ACOUSTIC SONG | 3 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Bursa-K6 | KOÇİNOĞLU | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Bursa-K7 | AYCASA | 4 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
| Şanlıurfa-K1 | DİREN KAPORTACI | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K2 | CEMO CAN | 1 | ✅ sistem çalıştı |
| Şanlıurfa-K3 | BERRYBELLA | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K4 | HUN DAY | 3 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K5 | İSMETİM | 10 | 🟠 ağırlık düşük |
| Şanlıurfa-K6 | KING LIGHTNING | 2 | 🟡 bantta, 1. değil |
| Şanlıurfa-K7 | GANADORES | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K8 | HEART SHOT | 10 | 🔴 ceza fazla sert |
| Şanlıurfa-K9 | TAHT ALAN | 5 | 🟠 kol dar kalmış |
Trend — son 30 gün
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fill="#718096">42.5</text><line x1="48" y1="83.5" x2="624" y2="83.5" stroke="#edf2f7" stroke-width="1"/><text x="42" y="86.5" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:10px" fill="#718096">62.9</text><line x1="48" y1="36.0" x2="624" y2="36.0" stroke="#edf2f7" stroke-width="1"/><text x="42" y="39.0" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:10px" fill="#718096">83.4</text><text x="48.0" y="242" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:9px" fill="#718096">09-27</text><text x="107.6" y="242" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:9px" fill="#718096">09-30</text><text x="167.2" y="242" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:9px" fill="#718096">10-03</text><text x="226.8" y="242" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:9px" 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<svg viewBox="0 0 640 198" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style="max-width:100%;background:#ffffff;border-radius:6px"><rect x="0" y="0" width="640" height="198" fill="#ffffff"/><text x="320" y="18" text-anchor="middle" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:13px;font-weight:600" fill="#1a202c">Teşhis dağılımı — son 30 gün</text><text x="122" y="49" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟡 bantta, 1. değil</text><rect x="128" y="36" width="468.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="602.0" y="49" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">158</text><text x="122" y="75" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">✅ sistem çalıştı</text><rect x="128" y="62" width="388.0" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="522.0" y="75" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">131</text><text x="122" y="101" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 kol dar kalmış</text><rect x="128" y="88" width="260.7" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="394.7" y="101" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">88</text><text x="122" y="127" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🟠 ağırlık düşük</text><rect x="128" y="114" width="210.3" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="344.3" y="127" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">71</text><text x="122" y="153" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 ceza fazla sert</text><rect x="128" y="140" width="165.9" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="299.9" y="153" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">56</text><text x="122" y="179" text-anchor="end" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#2d3748">🔴 KÖR NOKTA</text><rect x="128" y="166" width="26.7" height="16" fill="#2b6cb0" rx="2"/><text x="160.7" y="179" style="font-family:-apple-system,Segoe UI,sans-serif;font-size:11px" fill="#1a202c">9</text></svg>
🔧 Haftalık katman çarpanı — Pazartesi tetiği
ambar 316335 at-koşusu · 1874 gün · TRAIN <2026-08-28 (305119) · TEST >=2026-08-28 (11216)
KAĞIT lift TRAIN=1.658(n=65213) TEST=1.625(n=2190) → çarpan 1.394→1.397 [guncellendi]
IŞIK lift TRAIN=1.459(n=82921) TEST=1.439(n=2818) → çarpan 1.394→1.397 [guncellendi]
H2H lift TRAIN=1.375(n=85275) TEST=1.414(n=3147) → çarpan 1.390→1.395 [guncellendi]
MERCEK lift TRAIN=1.173(n=101153) TEST=1.160(n=3961) → çarpan 1.155→1.157 [guncellendi]
ANTRENÖR lift TRAIN=1.021(n=190239) TEST=1.031(n=6935) → çarpan 1.038→1.034 [guncellendi]
JOKEY lift TRAIN=1.105(n=20613) TEST=1.225(n=3569) → çarpan 1.387→1.306 [guncellendi]
İDMAN lift TRAIN=—(n=0) TEST=—(n=0) → çarpan 1.000→1.000 [atlandi-veri-yok]
BARİYER lift TRAIN=0.918(n=5629) TEST=0.826(n=441) → çarpan 0.840→0.833 [guncellendi]
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
OK /home/tjk/TJK-Vault/05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.mdTam detay: 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK-LOG.md · 05-Engine/ORKESTRA-AGIRLIK.json
Makine yazdı. Yorum, ders ve kural önerisi PI + Claude işidir ve bu dosyanın ALTINA eklenir.